Groundhog Day: More or Less Winter?

(Public Domain)

Punxsutawney Phil the groundhog didn't see his shadow this morning in Philadelphia, and you know what that means!  Spring is coming early . . . or is it?

According to the Stormfax Almanac Phil has been right only 39% since 1887.  Those aren't great, dependable odds, and that only leads me to realize that I should believe the opposite of whatever tradition dictates.  Technically with that average we have a 61% chance of more Winter.  That I do believe.  This Winter has been insane with snow, fog, and freezing rain.  There doesn't seem to be an end in sight.   

I've always believed the groundhog tradition to be counter-intuitive.  If a groundhog sees his shadow, that means there's Sun.  If there's Sun there's warmth, and anything warm isn't Wintery.  So where did this backward thinking, and proven more times wrong then right, tradition begin?

In early America February 2 was called Candlemas day, A Christian Holiday celebrating the presentation of Jesus at the Temple, and like all good Christian holidays, the Christian Holiday mingled with the pagan Imbolc, which is a Gaelic season festival between the Winter solstice and Spring equinox.

A diary entry written February 4, 1841 by James Morris in Pennsylvania reads:   

Last Tuesday, the 2nd, was Candlemas day, the day on which, according to the Germans, the Groundhog peeps out of his winter quarters and if he sees his shadow he pops back for another six weeks nap, but if the day be cloudy he remains out, as the weather is to be moderate.  

And an old English poem reads: 

If Candlemas be fair and bright,
Winter has another flight.
If Candlemas brings clouds and rain,
Winter will not come again.

Another fun note: Back in Europe they depended on the badger instead of the groundhog.

I do admire a holiday that hasn't been overly commercialized, because everything is commercial these days.

So bundle up!  Grab some Hot Chocolate, because, no offense Phil, we've got many more cold days of Winter ahead of us.   

Sarah